My Picks for Tomorrow's Election

Tomorrow is Voting Day. Take 20 - 30 minutes of your time, show up to your poll and cast a ballot. I've already talked about the importance of voting - so do it. (Your employer is legally obligated to give you time off to vote).

Election Day is my Super Bowl. I love watching election results and the terrible graphics networks use to show them. Incredibly formulaic and this year, I expect that touch screen technology will play a huge role (way to be behind the Americans by 3 years Canada) and that network news anchors will be throwing up results on the screen a la Tom Cruise in Minority Report.

Here are my seat predictions for tomorrow:

Province	#	Cons	Lib	NDP	BQ	Gr	Ind
NF	7	2	3	2	0	0	0
NB	10	5	3	2	0	0	0
NS	11	4	4	3	0	0	0
PEI	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
QC	75	10	10	33	22	0	1
ON	106	54	29	23	0	0	1
MN	14	8	1	5	0	0	0
SK	14	10	1	3	0	0	0
AL	28	28	0	0	0	0	0
BC	36	24	2	10		0	0
YK	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
NWT	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
NV	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL	308	147	57	82	22	0	2
Before Diss.	305	143	77	36	47	0	2
Gain(+) Loss (-)		4	-20	46	-25	0	0

Sadly, we won't see an end to minority Parliaments, instead, we'll have our 4th in 7 years. The big sea change will be the NDP taking over as Official Opposition and the Liberals delegated to 3rd party status, the first this has ever happened for them. The Bloc will be half its strength and if there's any credit I'll give the NDP, it's helping to destroy a regional, sovereignist party.

Conservatives will see a small seat increase in Ontario (expect GTA ridings to turn from red to blue) and Newfoundland (no more Danny Williams to be a thorn in Harper's side) as they will also lose some to the NDP in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. A gain of four will not be enough and will be a big black eye for Harper.

The NDP will gain big time - mostly in Quebec, and a couple of seats in provinces like Manitoba, Saskatchewan (which has a long legacy of NDP governments), BC and New Brunswick. One must applaud the NDP for not losing their gains this week, although, coverage of the royal wedding helped effectively move the attention away from the election for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Big losers are the Liberals and BQ. Good riddance I say. The Liberals need to re-evaluate what they stand for, and the BQ just need to crawl back into their separatist hole.

As for the party leaders, don't expect Jack or Harper to go anywhere. While most will think Harper will resign if he cannot make a majority mandate, he's effectively used his overbearing control to make sure there are no possible candidates at the moment to replace him as leaders. Even the possible candidates - Flahrety, Baird and McKay, don't have enough national presence (especially Western support) to take the reigns.

Depending on how badly he fails (and I expect it'll be big), Michael "Rise Up" Ignatieff will be FedEx-ed back to Harvard on the overnight. Expect him to resign post-consession. This time, the Liberals should really have a leadership race worth watching as this will give them a chance to regroup and elect a leader that is inspiring, rather than everyone's second choice (Dion) and "well, I guess we have to" (Ignatieff).

Expect Gilles Duceppe to fall by the wayside and announce his resignation. Expect also a quick and easy leadership convention for the BQ as they'll likely boost Pauline Marlois from provincial party leader to federal leader - they really don't have any other choice.

Many wonder how the NDP got the momentum that they did. Looking back, they did a lot of things right including:

- having a likeable leader: I'll admit it, if Layton wasn't running under the NDP banner, there would be a 75% chance I would vote for him. He campaigned while still recovering from health issues and didn't sink to the levels of mudslinging as Iggy and Harper did.

- did well at the debates: Jack had a couple of lines at the debates that were highlights. No other leader could claim the same.

- best use of social media to encourage young people to vote: I couldn't watch one video on Youtube without fucking NDP ads playing as pre-roll. And an overwhelming number of my friends on Facebook had more orange on their profiles than the Dutch. They electrified the youth vote (my brother even voted for them - to my dismay) and didn't turn them away like the Conservatives did

Some other factors helped including:

- Quebec - duh, they've had one party "working" for their interests for so long that after two decades of no results, people are over it. Quebec has always had more socialist roots (influenced by their more European point of view) so naturally, what the NDP was pitching, they were buying.

- people not liking Iggy or Harper - seriously, Iggy just has little to no leadership appeal. He always sounds condescending - likely because of his academic background. Harper, while he has proven to provide stable economic leadership, is bullish in his way of dealing with people. He rubs people the wrong way and rules with a top-down mentality.

- Conservatives vs. Liberals - these two parties brought out all their ammunition at each other and scoffed that they needed anything for the NDP. Even as the NDP surged, the two camps didn't care to respond or didn't have anything ready. They were late to respond to the NDP's rocketing success and lost out big time on hitting them back in the last weeks of the election

- Royal Wedding - there goes 3 full days of news coverage giving the NDP an opportunity to keep their recent gains

Well, no matter what, some change will happen, which after $400 million dollars, at least we can be happy that it wasn't all for nothing. However, I'm pretty sure Ignatieff will wake up Tuesday and do a hand palm to face while muttering, "I shouldn't have called an election."

As Quebec wraps itself in an orange Snuggie before election day...

So Jack Layton must be feeling really good right now. From week 1, where he was marginalized as a non-choice between the red and blue door, 'til one week before the election and BAM, he's riding an Obama-esque wave in Quebec and in other places around the country, I'd say he must be full of shits and giggles right now.

I have to give it to Jack - after a year of battling cancer and just recovering from hip surgery right before the election, one can't tell that this man's been through the gauntlet of health issues as he's just as spry, if not more spry than the Tinman, the Scarecrow and the drunk French guy. He did well in the debates, delivering what I thought was the #1 line to remember (him to Iggy: "If you don't show up for work, don't expect a promotion.") and throwing in #fail worked in his favour with all the Twitter fanatics that tweeted him a #WIN after the debates.

All that being said, I shudder to think of what an NDP opposition, and possible NDP led coalition government will mean for this country and our fragile economic recovery.

Their platform and how they plan on paying for it all.

There are some great plans in this platform - he wants to help seniors, families with small children, help small businesses and renew health care. All decent ideas that I'm sure no one would dispute or can't get behind. That is until you realize how much everything costs.

$6B will be paid by raising corporate taxes from it's current 16.5% to 19.5%. What they don't tell you is that it'll actually cost Canadians more than the $6B that the government will be earning because Corporations will just pass along the cost to consumers - we'll feel it in small price increases. There's also the risk of companies cutting costs to balance out the new 3% tax hike - costs like salaries and wages, resulting in lost jobs in the corporate sector. Raising taxes also deals a blow to us attracting any sort of foreign investment at a time our economy needs the money the most.

Then there's the $1B from getting back money from Canadians sheltering cash in tax havens, like Switzerland. Not really sure how they'll guarantee $1B or the $3B they project in year 3 of their four year plan, but we all know how easy it is to get the Swiss banks to cooperate by giving back money right? Aren't there still lawsuits pending from WWII survivors?

Then the magical $3.6B from cap and trade, a carbon emissions reduction program that punishes those who go over their limit. By the time legislation for cap and trade passes through Parliament, it'll be time for another election - doubtful of where they can realistically get this money from.

With all that said, their $9B in projected revenues is enough to cover every social program they've planned including big expenditures for small business help, education and helping families. I'd be a bit more cautious here, I doubt their projected revenues will be anywhere close to what they expect it to be.

Their candidates. Young and inexperienced.

Remember when you got out of school and you were filled with all the great pep talks from your educators - "You're going to be a star!" "You'll change the world with your ideas!" And then you step into your first job and you quickly figure out how much you don't fucking know. In many ridings around the country, especially Quebec, the NDP are running 20 somethings in this election, 20 somethings that might just win a seat in the HoC. Today, it was announced that one of these 20 somethings decided that a week before the election, she needed a vacation, so she booked it to Vegas. She couldn't cancel the trip for something important like the election, no, she needs her break! One can imagine the discipline she'll have as the MP for her riding.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on young people, but the sheer numbers of young people they have as candidates makes me wonder - if they all win a seat, will our Minister of Health be someone who's still finishing up university? For more on these candidates, and why I'm not the only one who's scared of them, go to: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/andrew-steele/jack-laytons-risky-potential-mps-in-quebec/article1999595/?from=sec368

Alright, I'll admit, the alternatives aren't any better. But let's think for a moment - the NDP have never formed a government or an official federal opposition. There is a reason why the are always a 3rd or 4th place party is because their views are so far to the left that Canada cannot possibly afford any of the plans they want to put into action. Their budget bites of more social programs than we can chew at this point. Knowing our neighbour to the south is still struggling to rescue itself from their quicksand of an economy, we cannot possibly take the change with such a radical budget and social program agenda.

On Monday May 2, I hope that this wave of orange fever is just that, a fever we'll be cured from by the end of this week.

PS - thanks Quebec for giving us this orange fever in the first place.

April Challenge - Day 18 - 24 Bad Weather + Working Lots = Sick

Well, this week hasn't been great for my exercise regimen. After being knocked out with a bad cold for 5 of the past 7 days, I haven't hit the gym as much as the weeks before. Here's a brief overview:

Monday - weights
Tuesday - 7km run
Wednesday - Friday - the worst of my cold days
Saturday - 17km run
Sunday - Weights
Monday - 4km run and abs

I'm hoping I can get back into the groove this week. With the 10k run on Sunday, and my rest day on Saturday, I plan on running at least another 10k this week and a smaller run on two days. Fingers crossed on no injuries!

11 years...

Here's a note I wrote last year when it was the 10th anniversary of my mom's death. With today being April 22, I thought I'd repost to my blog.

Saturday is the 10th anniversary of my mother's passing. On April 24th, 2000, she lost her fight to cancer. She put up a brave fight, having been diagnosed with lung cancer the previous September, she went through several rounds of chemo and radiation. All was looking great up until February 2000, when the cancer spread throughout her body.

I remember that day well. I heard a soft knocking on my door, my stepfather stepped into my room and let me know, tearfully, that my mother had passed during the night. After he let me know that, I remember that sounds became muffled, all I could say was "okay, okay." My brother was still asleep and all I could think about was how to possibly break the news to him.

After sitting at the edge of my bed for what seemed like an entire day, I was able to gather myself to go visit my mom for one last time. I could only mumble "I love you, mom," before I broke down into tears. I left shortly after and by the time I could compose myself, the staff from the funeral home had arrived to remove her from our house.

The one thing I truly regret was the fact that I didn't say a proper goodbye. I couldn't face the fact that the person who gave me life and raised me was gone. I couldn't bring myself to go to the service and I was back in school a couple days after my mom's death. I was (and still am) thankful that I had many great friends who had kind words and were just there for me during that terrible time. If it wasn't for them, I doubt I would have been able to get through that difficult time.

I often think back to that day, and the pain hasn't really diminished even with all the time that has passed. Every year, around this time, I find myself dipping into a slight depression. It wasn't until this past year, when I stumbled across several family photo albums when cleaning out my grandmother's apartment, that I've been able to gain a new perspective on my mom's death, and more importantly, her life.

My mom (age 4)

My mom, Agnes Muh-Jing Yao, was born on February 26, 1956 in Taipei, Taiwan, to my grandparents, Ken-Fa Yao and Hsiu-Ying Lo. She was a spirited child. My grandmother would often tell me that my mom excelled in school and would be giddy to go to school in the mornings. My grandfather would scold me when I would not do so well on tests and remind me that my mother would stay up studying all night in order to get the top score in her class (I was in grade 3 at the time...really grandpa?)

My aunt Anne, my grandmother, my grandfather, my mom and my uncle.

My mom had two siblings, Morgan (the oldest brother) and Anne (the middle sister). My mom was the youngest and clearly my grandfather's favourite. My aunt once told me that her and her brother both knew this fact, and secretly hated it when my grandfather would say to them, "why can't you be more like shao may" (shao may was my mom's nickname). Nonetheless, they were all very close when they were younger, but when my uncle moved to Canada, and my aunt moved to Los Angeles, the distance put a strain on their relationship.

My mom in University.

It's weird to see photos of my mom in university. First, it is hard to imagine her at my age. Second, she looked so distinguished in all her photos (compared to my hundreds of drunk photos posted on Facebook). And finally, she looked so happy and ready to take on life's challenges - not to say she wasn't happy later on in life, but I could definitely see that she had more energy and optimism. What I find most empowering about finding photos from her youth is the fact that she worked incredibly hard to get herself into university (at a time where women still had a difficult time in getting into higher education) and came out with a degree in accounting. She secured a job as a teller at Chase Manhattan bank in Taipei and decided that it was time to start a family. From what I understand, she made the decision to get married to my dad and the decision to have me - incredible, considering that the Chinese culture is still very patriarchical, that she called the shots.

My mom and me in Taiwan.

My mom had me when she was 27 (again, another fact that scares the shit out of me, considering that I turn 27 next year and I am no where close to being ready to have kids of my own). From the very beginning, she was a loving, but often stern parent and this held true all the way into my teenage years. Once again, she proved to be different than the other women around her at the time, rather than staying home to be with me, she decided that she should also be able to pursue a career as well. She went back to work after her maternity leave (again, uncommon during that time in Taiwan) because, she later told me, that it was important to her to pursue a career in order to provide the best possible future for me (and soon, my brother).

Immigrants.

My family immigrated to Toronto in February of 1989. We settled in first with my grandparents in Scarborough, but soon, my parents bought a house near McCowan and Finch, which is where I grew up. I remember it wasn't easy for my parents - both had limited English skills, so finding a job was difficult. But my mom secured a bookkeeping job - good thing she decided to pursue her career back in Taiwan, because it was much more difficult for my dad to find anything in his field. For many years, my mom supported our family and ultimately, that resulted in the dissolution of my parents' relationship. My dad couldn't get over the fact that he wasn't able to provide for his wife and children, and my mom didn't want to give up on being able to provide for her family.

My mom was a tough parent. I was often disciplined when I was out of line or when I didn't perform academically in school. But she was also a hilarious mom - I've often told my friends this story. When I was six, as a way to help me learn English, she would rent movies for me to watch. The first movie she got from the corner store was "Silence of the Lambs" - she had a limited understanding of English at the time and even less of North American pop culture. She just recognized the word "Lamb" and thought it was a children's movie. I sat in my living room watching this movie as a six year old, too scared to watch and too scared to tell my mom that I didn't want to watch anymore because I knew she'd yell at me to watch the movie (again, not understanding what the content was).

As my brother and I got older, we became more defiant, especially when I entered my teenage years, I was a huge brat. I remember for four months, my mom and I didn't talk to each other because we got in a huge fight (and for some reason, our family loves to excommunicate each other when we fight). I often regret this incident, had I known I had so little time with her, I would have never cut her off for that long. Looking back, I am pretty sure that that incident hurt her more than it did me - as much as she was tough, she loved my brother and I a lot, and it probably killed her the fact that we weren't speaking.

My mom and my brother.

My brother and my mom had a completely different relationship. My mom coddled my brother - he was her baby. He never got hit, she was often more leinent on his schoolwork than she was with mine, and boy was I jealous. To this day, I still rag on my brother for how easy he was treated - he obviously doesn't like that I do that.

My family had our first run in with cancer when my uncle was diagnosed back in 1993. At the time, there was some tension between my uncle and the rest of my family, but his illness definitely brought the family together. He passed away very quickly after the diagnosis.

Seeing my mom go through that was painful. She had recently gotten divorced from my dad and to have this happen, she was hurting. Her only focus at this time, to get her mind off things, was to get her CGA designation in order to provide a better life for my brother and I. As a single mom, she would drop us off at school, go to work, come back and pick us up from my grandparents at 7pm, go home and study for her courses. She worked so hard to improve herself in order to make our lives better.

After my grandfather died from cancer in 1995, my mom was devastated. Since childhood, my grandfather would always be the person she relied on for advice and support. Now, he was gone and she also had to now take care of my grandmother. I couldn't imagine that kind of stress placed on me, but she was able to do it, and never once showed my brother or I, how scared and upset she must have been.

1998 comes along, and my mom meets my stepfather, and she was finally happy for the first time in a long time. However, that happiness would be shortlived as in September of 1999, she got the diagnosis that she too, had cancer.

She called me from the hospital when she got the diagnosis, and I remember crying on the phone. She was crying too, but reassured me that she will fight, promising me that she will beat this cancer. She knew I was scared, considering I've seen my uncle and grandfather pass away from the disease. But I can't imagine how scared she must have been - to be the head of a family, knowing you're facing a disease like cancer.

The last couple of months of my mom's life were some of the happiest times for our relationship. However, when the cancer started to spread, I started to distance myself, likely due to my fear that I didn't want to see her pass away. I've regretted that to this very day.

Having discovered these photo albums, that had been lost to the various boxes stored in my grandmother's closet, I have spent the last couple of months looking through them, several times. On one hand, it was great to find these photos and reconnect with a part of my family that I've forgotten about. On the other hand, it brings up some painful memories of the loss of my mother.

In the end, I am grateful for the lessons my mom has taught me in life. Work hard, work hard, work hard. Hard work make you the best, hard work will provide for yourself and your family, and hard work will inspire others to do the same. I have many aspects of her personality - the good: I'm diligent, responsible and assertive; the bad: I'm extremely stubborn, very impatient and terrible at expressing my feelings properly.

Not a day goes by that I think about her, or wish that she was still here. When she died, I remember praying to God, bargaining with him to bring her back, and that I would do anything if he did. Everyday, for the week after she passed, I would wake up and run to her room to see if he had answered my prayers, and would be heartbroken when reality hit. She was really gone.

My brother has taken her death harder than I have. I pretened to be tough, swallowed the hurt and did my best to honour her by working hard, he was incredibly hurt. It took a toll on him emotionally, and changed his personality. He was 10 at the time, and unfortunately, it took him a good nine years to get back on track. He's doing better now, especially academically, and I know my mom would be super proud of his journey back to the person she always imagined he'd be.

As for me, I hope I have made my mom proud - I wish I could have shared some great accomplishments in my life with her. I miss talking to her and laughing with her. For the last 9 years, I've let April 24 get me down. But having discovered these photos, remembering the life my mom led, I will make this April 24, the 10th anniversary of her passing, different. This year, I will celebrate my mom's life and reflect on the great memories I have of her.

So mom...I love you, and I miss you. Cheers to a life well lived.

With this vote, I protest this election.

Yesterday was the first of three advanced voting days (you can also vote today and on Monday as well). As a person recovering from a nasty cold and nothing else better to do, I went to vote as I'm pretty sure that when May 2nd comes around, I'll be so angry with the political parties I might refuse to go vote.

I got to the polls - conveniently located a kilometer from my house - to the clearly labelled, yet oddly confusion arrow signs that pointed me to the washrooms as opposed to the central room that the voting was taking place. Nonetheless, I'm a smart person, I figured out that the stall was not where I was supposed to vote.

I get greeted by one of three greeters sitting around. Of the 15 polls located in the community centre, there were at least 45 elections officials sitting around, on their cell phones or chatting up a storm with one another. The greeter asks me, "are you here to vote?" The asshole side of me would have answered, "No, I'm here to partake in craftmaking," but I replied with a smile and "yes."

He directed me over to my polling station where I'm greeted by a man with a handlebar moustache who is on his cell phone. After looking at me with a confused look, I stated, "I am here to vote." He politely asked the person on the other end of the call to hold on for a moment and tells me that I'll have to wait until his companion at the polling station came back from the washroom. I asked, "can't another person from another polling station (not two feet away) substitute for her?" He said, "No, it's the rules," and went back to his call. So after waiting 4 minutes for his polling co-worker to take the longest dump ever, and twittering my displeasure of having to wait at the polls, she returns. A spry woman, she looked like Uma Thurman in the Batman where she played Poison Ivy.

After taking my driver's license and my voting card, it took them another five minutes to go through the voter's list, write my name down on the advanced voters list and hand me my ballot. Did I mention that these people are being paid between $14 - $20 / hour for this speedy service?

Regardless, I'm just happy to get to vote. I get into the booth and look at my ballot with six names on it. There are the four major party candidates and two fringe party candidates (there's actually a Marxist-Leninist candidate in my area!).

As I go to mark my X beside the Conservative Party candidate, I hesitated. I thought this would have been an easy vote for me, but I had a minute of deep reflection as to why I should give this party my vote. They've produced a platform that was as weak as their budget, they have a leader who refuses to answer any direct questions from the media, and now stories of more corruption and scandal that would make the Liberal's Sponsorship scandal look like a legal transaction. As much as I believe that we need a strong majority government, this was not the party to do so.

So I consider marking my X for the Liberal candidate and wince at the thought that Michael Ignatieff would be PM. The Liberal platform is just as bad as the Conservatives, with funding calculations using parts of the Conservative budget they defeated to cause this election. This guy has also flip flopped on the idea of coalitions, which shows me he'll do whatever it take to gain power - similar to Stephane Dion, his doomed predecessor. I couldn't justify my vote for him.

Then I go to Olivia Chow - who I think has done quite a bit for our riding and was the only candidate who approached me with a flyer near my building. But I could never justify a vote for the NDP, not after what they did to Ontario in the 1990s under Bob Rae's leadership.

I thought about giving my vote to the Greens - perhaps throw them my $1.95 / vote funding that they so desperately need. But Elizabeth May has made less than a rat's fart of a contribution to these elections. They certainly didn't have the same gusto as they did back in 2008. So no, not them either.

Now, while it seems like an eternity has gone by at the booth, it's only been really 10 - 15 seconds. 10 - 15 seconds of me going through the disgust I had with all the parties and wondering why we're even having this election in the first place. I highly doubt seat counts will change much, the Conservatives will still have a minority government and the same leaders will be back to behave in the same manner as they would have before this election.

Then I did what I thought I'd never do. I drew a line across my ballot, spoiling it. My own protest against this election. I protest the fact that there is an election, I protest the fact that these parties have not spoken to my needs during these elections, and I protest that these are the leaders of our political parties - petty, whiny assholes. I protest that my regular vote for the party of my choice doesn't count in my overly NDP/Liberal riding. I protest the fact that we will have another minority government after having 3 failed attempts because our politicians can't cooperate. I protest the current state of Canadian politics.

I slight disbelief that I just spoiled my ballot, I walk to the ballot box and quickly placed the ballot in before I changed my mind. After a "thank you for voting," from the poll workers, I left the polling station in a state of shock and giddiness, like a child who knows he's done something to defy his parent's wishes.

I encourage the rest of you to vote - take Monday as an opportunity to take some time out of your day and cast your ballot (your employer must legally allow you this time off). If you don't vote on Monday, vote the following Monday like everyone else. And if you're as pissed off with the parties as I am, think about spoiling your vote. It is your right to do so.

April Challenge - Day 17: Fruit Smoothies

I've been experimenting with various real fruit smoothies lately. During my Sunday shopping at the supermarket, I buy a whole bunch of fruit and then make different combos of smoothies.

So far, I've tried:

Mango Strawberry

Blackberry Strawberry

Mango Raspberry

Mango Orange

Each pitcher that I make provides three servings. It's great and provides me my morning and afternoon servings of fruit. Super healthy and with no sugar whatsoever.

April Challenge - Day 10 - 16: Bad poster...

I've been a terrible blogger. Just terrible. It's been a jam packed week but that's no excuse for bad blogging. Rather than trying to make up each day as I have done before - I'll save everyone's time by putting it all into one blog posting.

Monday - cardio - 7k on the dreadmill, I mean treadmill.

Tuesday - weights (focusing on arms)

Wednesday - cardio - 6k with the Sporting Life team at Queen's Park.

Thursday - weights (focus on legs)

Friday - after having dinner with a client, it was to the gym to concentrate on core. I can't say this was the best idea this week

Saturday - I was pretty sick, so my focus was on exercises that wouldn't aggrevate my stomach...so it was just arms today.

Sunday - 8k run - felt good, but would have been better outside

This week, I'll be better at posting. I promise.